Two important developments that took place this week, shaping the economic and political landscape of Pakistan, have come after a long legal process, but will not be noteworthy for their legal standing.
One was the disqualification of Imran Khan by the Election Commission of Pakistan, and the other, the exclusion of Pakistan from the ‘gray list’ by the FATF.
Although ample legal grounds were available, legality on such matters is just a useful tool. Both of these decisions were rooted in politics, local as well as international. Therefore, the implication of such decisions should be assessed based on their political angle rather than legal.
What is important in the disqualification verdict of ECP, is the recommendation for initiating a criminal proceeding for ‘acts of corruption’ by the Ex-Prime Minister, Imran Khan. This is important in the respect that even if the disqualification is reversed in a court appeal, or becomes ineffective through legislation, the criminal proceeding based on this verdict will still have serious consequences. And just as a sentence awarded by a court of law, where a defendant is found guilty as charged and the time spent in custody while the court was in session is considered as a punishment assigned for the offense, has its own implications.
Imran Khan had already earned another badge of dishonor this year as being the only PM who has been ousted in a vote of no confidence. And now this verdict of disqualification, which may be just for a small period, is still significant in terms of its implication. And, apparently, the verdict of disqualification in itself may be questioned but the long process leading to this verdict has unearthed enormous material for criminal proceeding.
Following this ECP verdict, no large-scale demonstration against it could be organized by PTI supporters and officials. This takes the sting out of PTI’s rhetoric of a long march against the newly formed federal government. Large scale sustained public demonstrations that have shaken past governments of Pakistan, could only be organized after having been backed by the establishment. There is no such support available to Imran Khan.
So, some respite for the government as well as the market participants.
As time nears for the change of the Chief, a calming effect in political maneuvering is palpable.
The second development this week was on the front of FATF. Pakistan now joins FATF after shaking last bits of grey. This is hugely positive for its international standing and the economy. Most of the work in this regard had been done by the previous government. The FATF had indicated in its last meeting, that all of the required steps in this regard have been completed by Pakistan and the final decision will be announced in October this year after verification by a field visit. This has now happened. See the announcement in the following link.
Pakistan was placed in the 'grey list' in 2018. As is quite evident now that FATF developed issues with Pakistan because of geo-politics rather than anything else in its banking procedures. Even in adhering to stricter regime Pakistan had completed all the necessary step about two years back, subsequent to its placement in the 'grey list'. The matter however remained hinged on a certain prosecution to be completed rather than anything substantive.
https://twitter.com/FATFNews/status/1583499858123448330?s=20&t=u2wY5ljzrJcv8onkImpiRA