Monday, 18 July 2022

Learn from BRICS to Think Big!

BRICS looking to commit further and expand their family after having gone steady for some time. Not only expansion, it is also toying with the idea of some sort of exchange system beyond the US dollar.

It is not, though, that the BRICS declared so much of this in their latest meeting.

The BRICS president had said in the recent meeting that she expects Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to join the group “very soon”. (read more)


And as for a new exchange system, Putin himself proposed creation of an “international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our [BRICS] countries”..and that “the member states are also developing reliable alternative mechanisms for international payments.” (read here)


Putin must have been emboldened because of the fact that the Ruble managed to hold off successfully the Western sanctions after Ukraine war. And also that Russian #oil found other routes and managed to keep flowing. And the fact that India could not be pressured to refrain from buying Russian oil. To top this, Saudis also became Russian customers for oil (read here).

This indeed created an environment that allowed BRICS forum to be used to send a message of defiance to the West and the US.


A German paper wrote that ‘BRICS’ latest summit on June 23 was designed as a message to the G7 that the West is no longer in the driving seat, and that Russia, China and the Global South are preparing for a long fight against Western dominance.‘ That may not be so, but that is how BRICS latest meeting timing was seen.


To recall its origins, 'BRICS’ was thought up by an economist working at Goldman Sachs, who in his flight of fancy believed them to be countries with economies that would grow rapidly and ultimately challenge the economic power of the G7 nations. South Africa came later, not really in that league now, and Nigeria has become a better candidate.


BRICS countries are seen as being among the industrialized developing countries with large and emerging economies. These countries contain half of the world’s population and their combined gross domestic product is equivalent to that of the US. Total foreign exchange reserves of BRICS are around $4 trillion.


It took BRICS countries to become a forum several years after the acronym had become part of economic reports and discussion. The disparity between BRICS countries in terms of economic and political clout is immense.


China is in a league of its own with its manufacturing capacity, economic size, and foreign reserves. China is the second biggest investor in US treasuries (see this).


Politically, Russia and China share the same world outlook, while India partners with the US, Japan and Australia in a #Quad (read) that is openly positioned against China. If Saudi Arabia gets included that would give the forum two oil-exporting giants. Interesting times indeed.


The key issue in the present world order remains the blocs network the West, i.e. the US, has created around security issues. The US sees China as a main challenger to its key position in the world order. And while cooperating economically, the US remains focused on challenging China security-wise.


Tough balancing act for India and Saudia, when the US has so far been successful in painting China and Iran as a potent threat to them, respectively.


In that, giving a wrold-order-challenging-outlook to a forum that had its moorings in economic similarities is a challenge in itself.


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