PakStox Outlook

Until recently in world history, controlling trade routes meant controlling trade itself—and, by extension, the national wealth of a country. Empires rose and fell based on their ability to command these routes. The Opium Wars, initiated by Great Britain against China, stand as some of the most blatant examples of coercive trade practices. These conflicts involved not only colonial expansion but also the imposition of trades deemed illicit by modern standards—legitimized only by brute force, as Britain “ruled the waves.” The World Wars were, to a significant extent, fueled by emerging powers seeking to challenge and dismantle British dominance over global trade. As industrial capacities soared to meet the demands of warfare, the post-war era saw a dramatic shift. The vast industrial machinery once used to sustain global conflict was redirected toward consumer production, and the focus turned to building broader, international markets. The global cooperation that culminated in the Brett...

#PSX:HUBC - Hub Power. Financially, consolidated net profit stood at Rs. 34,249 million (EPS: Rs. 26.40), down from Rs. 49,547 million (EPS: Rs. 38.20) in the same quarter last year, primarily due to the termination and amendment of PPAs for the Hub and Narowal Plants. Unconsolidated net profit was Rs. 18,566 million (EPS: Rs. 14.31), compared to Rs. 21,958 million (EPS: Rs. 16.93) last year, mainly due to the same PPA termination, though partially offset by increased dividend income and lower finance costs. Operational highlights included continued power generation across multiple plants, with notable output from TN (1,300 GWh at 66% load factor) and TEL (1,102 GWh at 56%). In the exploration and production segment, the Company progressed with the South West Miano III block, having secured JV budget and begun preparations for drilling, while continuing to explore further opportunities. On the growth front, Mega Motor Company launched BYD experience centers in major cities and is worki...

Monetary Policy Committee of the State Bank of Pakistan. has decided to cut the policy rate by 100 bps to 11 percent, effective from May 6, 2025. Policy Decision MPC cut the policy rate by 100 bps to 11% , effective May 6, 2025. Decision driven by sharp decline in inflation , especially food and electricity prices. Core inflation also declined due to a favorable base effect and moderate demand. MPC emphasized a measured stance amid global uncertainty (e.g., tariffs, geopolitics). Macroeconomic Developments Real GDP growth : Q2-FY25 at 1.7% , revised Q1 up to 1.3% from 0.9%. Current account surplus : $1.2 billion in March , cumulative $1.9 billion in July–March FY25. Business and consumer sentiment continued to improve. Tax shortfall widened; global uncertainty led to IMF’s downward revision of global growth forecasts. Real Sector H1-FY25 GDP growth at 1.5% , in line with expectations. Positive momentum in vehicle and fuel sales, electricity generati...

RE-COMPOSITION OF JS MOMENTUM FACTOR INDEX (JSMFI) The constituents of JSMFI along with their weights in the index as of March 27, 2025 are as under:

The Indian central bank cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00% for the second time in a row. Also signaled a shift in its monetary policy stance from "neutral" to "accommodative." Decision mad on rising uncertainty from new 26% U.S. tariffs on Indian imports. Aimed at reviving a slowing economy, follows a similar rate cut in February—the first since May 2020. India's benchmark 10-year bond yield was marginally lower at 6.50% after the announcement, against 6.51% before, while the rupee was little changed at 86.57. The benchmark equity indexes extended their losses and were down around 0.6% each.

Yesterday's 3.3% decline at the PSX—which at one point forced a trading halt after falling as much as 7.3%—was by no means warranted. But for a small market like ours, any big move on either side is often meaningless and typically reflects our wild mood swings—hardly noteworthy.

The world has been shaken to its core, and the global trade order—painstakingly established through years of negotiation—now stands disrupted by the unilateral imposition of retaliatory tariffs by the United States of America. Recall the tremendous wealth that was created and distributed globally following the establishment of the WTO and China’s integration into the global economic system at the turn of the century—alongside a record-breaking run in stock markets around the world.